Interview with an expert: Russian confectionery market (for Publishing House "Sphere"). Analysis of the confectionery market

BEVERAGES

Overview of the Russian market of alcoholic beverages

Overview of the cider market

Overview of the Russian soft drinks market

TEA. COFFEE

Overview of the Russian tea market

CONFECTIONERY

MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS

Overview of the Russian sausage market

MILK PRODUCTS

Overview of the Russian cheese market

Overview of the Russian ice cream market

PACKAGE

Overview of the Russian market for packaging made of chrome-ersatz cardboard

CATERING

Franchising in the restaurant business

FINANCE AND CREDIT

Leasing market in Russia in the first half of 2015

EXHIBITIONS

NEW IN THE INDUSTRY

WHAT DO WE NEED? - CHOCOLATE!

Overview of the Russian confectionery market

Research by ID-Marketing
The confectionery market in Russia is provided mainly by domestic production. The market share of imported products is small, and it continues to decline due to the depreciation of the ruble and the sanctions policy. Market capacity in 2014 amounted to about 3.5 million tons of products, which is 2% higher than in 2013 (rice. 1 ) .
Since 2009, the production of confectionery products within the country has been characterized by annual increases in production volumes. Thus, according to the results of 2014, a record level of production over the past 10 years was recorded - 3.4 million tons of confectionery (rice. 2 ) .

In the first half of 2015, the trend continued, the indicator increased by 3.7% compared to the same period in 2014. At the same time, in the regions - leaders in the production of confectionery products, the Central and Volga Federal Districts, the indicators remained at the level of last year. The increase in production was achieved by increasing the volume of output by the enterprises of other districts. The largest increase in the indicator for the first half of 2015 was noted in the North Caucasus Federal District - 19%.
In the market structure, the ratio of production volumes between the main types of confectionery products in 2011–2014 remained almost unchanged. Almost half of production (47%) in January-June 2015 was cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery. The combined share of the production of gingerbread, gingerbread and similar products, as well as sweet biscuits and wafers was 42%. Flour products * , cakes and pastries of non-durable storage occupied 11%.
The output of flour confectionery, cocoa, chocolate and sugar products remained at the level of 2014. Biscuits, gingerbread and waffles, on the contrary, were produced by 9.5% more than in the same period last year.
According to Rosstat, the largest decline was recorded in the production of chocolates containing alcohol and packaged chocolates. The production of caramel, on the contrary, increased by 10.1%, and other types of chocolates - by 15.3%.
More than half of all confectionery flour products, cakes and pastries of non-durable storage are produced in ten regions of the country. In terms of production, the Chelyabinsk region is the leader, the share of which in 2014 was 9.8% (rice. 3 ) .

Here are located such major manufacturers as the Ural Confectioners Group of Companies, PTK Kolos LLC, Sladkiy Kondi LLC, Kremenkulskaya Confectionery LLC, Yuzhuralkonditer OJSC and others. In January-June 2015, production indicators in the region decreased by 17% compared to the same period in 2014. In 2014, the Krasnodar Territory followed in terms of volumes with a share of 8.8%. In the first half of 2015, the level of production of cakes and pastries in the Krasnodar Territory increased by 7.9%. In 2014, the Voronezh Region occupied the third place due to a more than twofold increase in the production of the products in question. In January-June 2015, output indicators in the region decreased by 24.4%. Moscow enterprises increased output by 10% in 2014, moving from third to fourth place compared to the same period in 2013. For the six months of 2015, the production rate in the capital increased by another 64.5%, while Moscow came in second place in terms of production. In general, according to the results of 2014, these four regions accounted for 30% of the products manufactured in the country.
Among the regions producing waffles, gingerbread and cookies, St. Petersburg is the leader, where in 2014 the output of these products increased by 16% (rice. 4 ) .

In January-June 2015, the increase was another 32.2%. In second place is the Kemerovo region, which also recorded an increase in indicators for the first half of 2015 - by 6.6%. In the Moscow region, which ranks third among the regions of Russia in terms of production of wafers, gingerbread and cookies, there is a rise in production levels by 24.7%.
More than one third of the production of cocoa, chocolate and confectionery sugar products in 2014 was provided by the volumes of three regions - Moscow, Moscow and Belgorod regions (rice. 5 ) .

In January-June 2015, in the Moscow region there was an increase in the indicator by 4.7%, while in Moscow and the Belgorod region, on the contrary, a decline was recorded, respectively, by 1 and 8.2%.
It is also worth noting a noticeable increase in the indicator of 2014 in the Rostov region - by 45% compared to the level of 2013. In January-June 2015, the trend continued – output volumes in the region increased by another 7.5%.
Import** of confectionery*** in 2014 amounted to 218.7 thousand tons, which is 30% lower than in 2013. In the overall structure of the market, the share of imports decreased from 9.3% to 6.3%. According to the results of 5 months of 2015, the import of confectionery products to the Russian Federation decreased by another 54% compared to the same period in 2014. At the same time, the decline mostly affected flour confectionery ****, the import of which (due to the ban on the supply of Ukrainian products) fell by almost 70% in January-May 2015 (rice. 6 ) .

According to the results of 5 months of 2015, Germany came out on top in the ranking of importing countries. At the same time, 70% of German deliveries fall on chocolate and other cocoa products.
Export of confectionery products in 2014 amounted to 175.1 thousand tons, which is 5% less than the previous year. In 2015, for the first five months, the decline in sales of Russian confectionery products to foreign countries amounted to 10.5%. The sharp increase in exports of sugar confectionery (including chocolate) in October 2014 can be explained by a seasonal factor, as well as a decrease in sales in Ukraine.
The largest decline was recorded in the segment of sugar confectionery (including white chocolate) that does not contain cocoa (rice. 8 ) .

The main share of exports in this segment falls on Ukraine. As a result of the deterioration of relations with the nearest neighbor, sales of confectionery products to this country, following the results of 2014, decreased by half, and for 5 months of 2015 - by another 71% (rice. 9 ) .

* According to OKPD, the group "flour confectionery products, cakes and pastries of non-durable storage" includes cakes, pastries, oriental sweets and other flour confectionery products not included in other groups.

** Analysis without taking into account deliveries with the countries of the Customs Union - Kazakhstan and Belarus.

*** According to TNVED codes 1704 - sugar confectionery (including white chocolate) not containing cocoa, 1806 - chocolate and other prepared food products containing cocoa, 190520 - gingerbread cookies and similar products, 190531 - sweet dry biscuits, 190532 - waffles and waffles.

**** According to TNVED codes 190520 - ginger biscuits and similar products, 190531 - sweet dry biscuits, 190532 - wafers and wafer wafers.

Ekaterina Novikova
research company
ID Marketing

According to the results of the first half of 2016, the share of the first group in physical terms is 47.8%, the share of the second is 52.2%. Based on the available data of Russian statistics, the division by segments can be conditionally represented as follows (Figure 1): gingerbread and similar products, sweet biscuits, wafers account for the largest market share - 41.7% of the total production volume, cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery products (excluding caramel, other chocolate sweets) - 31.1%.

Figure 1. The structure of the confectionery market by volume of manufactured products in physical terms in the first half of 2016,% of the total weight

In the structure of the largest commodity group, the largest share belongs to sweet liver (Figure 2). The segment occupies 48% of all manufactured products of this category. The second position is occupied by wafers and wafer wafers with a share of 16.7%, the third - gingerbread (13.1%). The share structure was built following the results of 2015. In general, compared with 2014, it has not undergone significant changes. Chocolate candies with a share of 22.4% occupy a leading position in the product group "Cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery products" (Figure 3). The second place is occupied by chocolate and food products containing cocoa (except for sweetened cocoa powder) with a share of 14.0%. On the third - caramel (12.1%), including candy caramels, with chocolate icing and various fillings. The share structure was also built following the results of 2015. In general, compared with 2014, it has not undergone significant changes.

Figure 2. The structure of the largest segment of the confectionery market in terms of production volume in physical terms at the end of 2015,% of the total weight

Figure 3. Structure of the “Cocoa, chocolate and sugary confectionery” segment in terms of production volume in physical terms at the end of 2015,% of the total weight

The production of confectionery products, despite the difficulties of the economic development of Russia, shows an increase from year to year. At the end of 2015, more than 3.4 million tons of confectionery products were produced, while the increase compared to 2014 was 1.2%. Compared to 2010, the volume of confectionery production increased by 20% (Figure 4.). Of course, consumer demand contributed to the growth of production indicators. Even in the last three years, starting from 2014, when the overall purchasing power has declined due to a significant weakening of the ruble, the consumer has remained true to himself, and no upheavals have weakened his love for tasty and sweet. Therefore, if in 2010 consumption in Russia was 20.5 kg of confectionery products per capita, by the end of 2016 consumption is expected to exceed 23 kg.

Figure 4. Trend diagram of confectionery production in physical terms for the period 2010–2015 and 2016 (estimated value).

It should be emphasized that manufacturers themselves also influenced the increase in demand by introducing new and expanding the range of attractive confectionery products to the market. Sellers also make their contribution by improving the marketing system and product promotion technologies. In addition, niches are being vacated due to a decrease in the supply of imported products. According to the results of 2016, the import of confectionery products to Russia in physical terms will be lower than the results of 2015, when it did not exceed 150 thousand tons and amounted to only 4% of the total supply of the studied products on the Russian market.

Significant in the Russian confectionery market is the fact that, starting from 2013, the export component in physical terms began to exceed the import, in monetary terms (meaning dollars) - since 2014. Thus, the balance of trade turnover of confectionery products has acquired a positive value. However, in 2016, the volume of export deliveries from Russia is also expected to decrease in physical terms compared to 2015, when exports exceeded 300 thousand tons and amounted to only 9% of the total volume of confectionery production. In general, in 2015, imports of confectionery products to Russia in physical terms decreased by 2.3 times compared to 2013, in 2016 the decrease will increase to 2.5 times.

In monetary terms, imports in 2015 decreased by 2.2 times compared to 2013, in 2016 the decline will increase to 2.8 times. The decrease in exports of confectionery products from Russia in physical terms in 2015 compared to 2013 amounted to 1.1%. The same value of the drop in supplies will be typical in 2016. In monetary terms, the figures for the volume of export supplies from Russia will decrease respectively in 2015 by 1.5 times, in 2016 - by 1.7 times. As can be seen, the values ​​of import and export deliveries do not significantly affect the volumes of the Russian confectionery market, because they are insignificant against the background of production volumes. According to experts of the Information Agency "Credinform", in 2015 the volume of the market in physical terms approached 3.3 million tons. In 2016, it is expected to reach 3.4 million tons.

In monetary terms, in 2015 the market volume reached the following results: in dollar terms - 19.5 billion in ruble terms - 1.2 trillion. In 2016, with an average annual exchange rate of 65 rubles per 1 US dollar, the market volume may exceed 20 billion dollars, or more than 1.319 trillion rubles. With an average annual exchange rate of 70 rubles per 1 US dollar, it will be about 19 billion, i.e. lower than in 2015, or 1.318 trillion rubles. Thus, in 2016, the market volume in ruble terms will exceed the figure for 2015 at any of the above average rates.

At the end of 2015, according to the Globas-i Information and Analytical System, the top three manufacturers in terms of sales revenue are: Nestlé Russia LLC, Moscow; LLC "Mars", Moscow region; OOO "Mon'delis Rus", Vladimir region (see table 1). Comparison of revenue with the market volume allows us to determine the shares of leaders in the market at the end of 2015: 10.2; 8.0; 5.0% respectively. Representatives of the top ten are also presented in the table.

Table 1. The largest manufacturers in the confectionery market by sales revenue in 2015

According to the results of 2016, in the absence of serious problems in the global economy, we should expect an increase in the production of confectionery products in physical terms according to the basic forecast scenario at the level of 3%, in the short term, the increase in the indicator will continue within 1–3%. The volume of the confectionery market in terms of money according to the basic forecast scenario may grow in 2016 compared to 2015 by 11–12%.

In the next 2–3 years, if the price growth trend continues, the increase will vary within 4–8%. The market will be positively affected by continued consumer demand. However, there are fears that the uncontrolled rise in prices for confectionery products may still affect this trend. Prices may also be boosted by new rules for the trading industry that came into effect in July 2016 as a result of amendments to the trade law. According to them, the bonus paid by the supplier to the retailer should not exceed 5 percent, and the terms for deferring payments to retail chains have also been reduced.

For sellers, this situation will be unprofitable, as the amount of payments received from suppliers decreases. In addition, an increase in the costs of concluding and executing contracts with manufacturers and suppliers is expected, since retailers must conclude new supply contracts subject to the adopted amendments, and old ones must be brought into line with the new requirements by January 1, 2017. As a result, lost revenues, as well as additional costs will be transferred to the cost of the goods, which may lead to its rise in price.

The growth of the chocolate market over the past year tends to slow down. What is connected with its active saturation. In 2010, the domestic market increased by 13.4%, and in 2011 - only by 8% and amounted to 622 thousand tons. According to experts, the potential Russian chocolate market is more capacious than it is today, however, without appropriate support from the industry, it is difficult to achieve the maximum level of chocolate consumption in the country.

According to Rosstat, the volume of the consumer market in Russia is 22-25% of GDP, equal to 242.5 billion rubles. USD The share of confectionery in the structure of consumer spending in 2011 amounted to 2.33%.

Efact. grew up confectioner. market = Econ. of the market (billion $) x Expenses on confectionery in the total structure of expenses (%) = 242.5 x 0.0233 = 5.65 billion dollars. In rubles, the market capacity will be equal to 151.71 billion rubles (at the exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on October 22 2011 26.8510 rubles / dollars). (3)

Let's calculate the market capacity based on average per capita consumption.

According to Rosstat, the population of Russia in 2011 is 142.8 million people. The average annual level of consumption of chocolate products per capita is 4 kg.

Efact. confectioner. market = Population x Per capita consumption = 142.8 x 0.004 = 571.2 thousand tons. (4)

Calculation of capacity based on the consumption rates of a given type of product.

Chocolate within the normal range is a stimulant of brain activity in the part that is responsible for creative and intellectual activity. The daily norm of chocolate consumption, according to the Ministry of Health, is 25 grams per person. This is approximately 9.125 kg. in year.

Thus, we can say that the market has a great growth potential; capacity calculated on the basis of recommended consumption rates exceeds the actual capacity by 2.3 times.

According to experts, almost 95% of confectionery products are produced in Russia. The chocolate business is one of the most profitable in the world, so foreign investors are actively investing in this industry. The main producers of chocolate products are located in the North-West region. And the inhabitants of these regions consume up to 35% of these products.

Regional companies are not competitive with such national companies as the N.K. Krupskaya Confectionery Factory, Babaevsky, Bolshevik, Nestle. And this is primarily due to outdated production. The only opportunity for local producers is to unite and direct consolidated financial resources to modernize production and promote products.

Among the regional players that occupy significant shares on the scale of the entire Russian market, we can name the company "People's Enterprise Confil" (Volgograd), the Krupskaya Confectionery Factory (St. Petersburg) and KF "AKKond" (Cheboksary).

Leading Russian manufacturers: Krupskaya Confectionery, Babaevsky, Rot Front, Pokrov, Bolshevik, Rossiya, A. Korkunov, Udarnitsa.

Leading foreign manufacturers whose products are presented on the Russian market: Nestle, Kraft Foods, SladKo (the main shareholder is the Norwegian Orkla), Mars, Cadbury, Wrigley, Ferrero.

To conduct a competitive analysis, it is necessary to assess the capacity of the confectionery market.

Let's calculate the market capacity in real terms:

Efact. confectioner. market = Population x Per capita consumption = 16.9 x 0.004 = 67.6 thousand tons. (6)

Direct competitors of the confectionery factory "Confectionery named after N.K. Krupskaya" are: Odintsovo confectionery factory, which produces products under the brand name "A. Korkunov", JSC "Confectionery Concern Babaevsky", "Russia", "Roshen".

LLC "Odintsovo Confectionery Factory" manufactures products under the trademark "A. Korkunov". The enterprise has become the national brand of Russia this year. Since 1997 Until 1999, construction and equipping of a modern complex for the production of chocolate products was underway, ready to produce up to 8 thousand tons of high-quality chocolate per year. According to leading world experts, the quality of construction, technical and technological equipment of the factory fully complies with international standards. In September 1999 the factory produced its first chocolate products under the brand name "A. Korkunov".

Now about 900 people work at the Korkunov factory, the total area of ​​\u200b\u200bthe plant is 120 thousand square meters. m. In addition to the general production at the confectionery factory, there is an exclusive workshop for the production of expensive sweets. The retail price of such sweets is 80 USD. e. per kilogram, they are stored for about two weeks. The workshop produces from 150 to 300 kilograms of such sweets monthly, manual labor is used in production.

Confectionery concern "Babaevsky" - the oldest confectionery production in Russia - in 2004 celebrated its 200th anniversary. The history of the company began with a small confectionery workshop founded in 1804. She received the status of a factory under Alexei Ivanovich Abrikosov, a merchant of the first guild. Since 1880, the factory has become known in Russia and abroad as the "Partnership of AI Abrikosov and Sons". Today, Babaevka's products are in demand and appreciated all over the world. This is confirmed by the numerous awards and prizes for high quality presented at Russian and international exhibitions. Sweets "Squirrel", "Little Red Riding Hood", "Mishka in the North", chocolate "Inspiration" are familiar to many Russians since childhood. And natural bitter "Babayevsky" chocolate during the fasts is ordered by the hierarchs of the Russian Orthodox Church.

"Russia". The Rossiya chocolate factory produced its first product 28 years ago. The enterprise was erected in the shortest possible time and equipped with the most modern equipment for those times. In terms of its capacity, Rossiya ranked 4th in Europe. In its little more than a quarter-century history, the Samara Chocolate Factory "Rossiya" has known both ups and downs. The flagship of the food industry in Soviet times, the enterprise was on the verge of death at the beginning of market reforms, but survived and began to gradually increase momentum.

Samara factory "Russia" produces only chocolate and chocolates. The company is stable and profitable. It produces tons of sweet products per day. Sales are stable. At the Samara chocolate factory "Russia" there is a constant preparation for the annual advertising campaigns

For two years now there has been cooperation between Rossiya and Nestle. Relationships are for mutual benefit. For example, new equipment became much cheaper for a chocolate factory after they began to cooperate with the Swiss. Nestle has a long-standing partnership with the German-Swiss company Buhler, one of the world's most famous manufacturers of equipment for the confectionery industry. Now it is with the help of this company that the production park of the Samara chocolate factory "Russia" is being modernized.

ROSHEN Confectionery Corporation is the largest Ukrainian manufacturer of confectionery products. Carries out production at the factories of the enterprise - Kiev, Vinnitsa, Mariupol and Kremenchug. An assortment of more than 200 types of sweets, chocolate, caramel, cookies, waffles, marmalade and cakes with a total production of up to 200 thousand tons per year. All confectionery products of the ROSHEN corporation factory are produced on the basis of natural high-quality products and are constantly being improved.

Modern technologies are being introduced into the entire recipe. Such sweets as cake "Kiev", chocolate "Chaika", sweets "Kiev Vecherniy", "Squirrel", "Hazel" and others are known and loved in many countries of the world. Roshen products can be found in Russia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia.

The table presents a quantitative assessment of competitors (Table 2).

Producer market shares

The concentration index shows the share of the commodity market of several largest firms. Let's calculate the indices based on the table data:

Based on the data obtained, it can be argued that the market is moderately concentrated, because Ik3 and Ik4 ranging from 45 to 70 percent - the entry of new players to the market is not closed.

The Hershfindahl-Hirschman index, which is an indicator of the tension of the competitive environment, is calculated as the sum of the squares of the market shares of all market participants, in general, its volume (the shares of small producers are discarded, which will not have a significant impact on the value of the coefficient):

Therefore, we can say that the market is represented by several large manufacturers, but does not exclude the possibility of other firms entering it - large players. The competitive situation is close to perfect competition.

1. Investments in small businesses on the example franchising firm Chocolate girl"

   Thesis >> Financial sciences

   Finished Ltd with necessary... on the example coffee shops Chocolate girl") 2.1 Characteristics of the enterprise and position on the ... marketing research provided to us by the Deputy Regional Director of the coffee chain " Chocolate girl"... 400 rubles, confectionery showcase - 96 ...

2. Methods of formation of competitive advantages on the example coffee houses

   Thesis >> Marketing

   ... example you can bring sweets of different names produced by one confectionery... are: " Chocolate girl" and coffee... marketing research, optimization of the assortment in accordance with the requests of the customers of the restaurant complex. 5. Allocation of funds on the ...

3. Studying the position of the enterprise on the supermarket market of the city of Stavropol

   Thesis >> Marketing

   Marketing on the example launching a new product on the market ... Stavropol", Ltd"Baby", Ltd « Chocolate girl" and a number of representatives of large confectionery enterprises. On the row... systems marketing activities on the enterprise. Group marketing research ...

4. Business plan for creating a private coffee club Ivory Coast

   Abstract >> Management

   ... on the example ... on the market and the overall improvement of the company's performance. Marketing research The basis of marketing are complex marketing research... *** **** **** No 4 1.4 chocolate girl**** **** ***** ***** **** No 4.4 ... Ltd ... confectionery ...

5. Sample business plan for a restaurant

   Thesis >> Marketing

   With limited liability ( Ltd) and enterprise without... discounts are provided. Examples organizations, ... Potato" 58 9 " Chocolate girl" 57 10 “GMR... and juices; confectionery products. Another... preliminary marketing study locations on the question...

Relevance

The Russian confectionery market is one of the largest markets in the world, yielding in physical terms only to the US market. One of the features of this market is a high level of concentration - a significant share of its mass segment is almost constantly controlled by 5-6 leading players, and the role of local manufacturers increases in positions requiring more detailed elaboration of the nomenclature due to regional characteristics, as well as in the positions of perishable products.

Target

Analysis of the Russian market of premium confectionery products

Short description

The first chapter of the marketing research of the premium confectionery market provides an overview of the market. The main characteristics of the market are considered, the factors influencing the market are estimated, the share of imports in the market is given.

The second chapter of the marketing research analyzes imports in the confectionery market in 2015. The volume and dynamics of imports are shown, the structure of imports is compiled by producing countries (in physical and value terms) and by manufacturing companies (in natural and value terms).

The result of the study was a forecast of the market situation for 2017.

Content

Part 1. REVIEW OF THE RUSSIAN CONFECTIONERY MARKET

1.1.Main characteristics of the market

1.2.Evaluation of factors affecting the market

1.3.Share of imports in the market

1.4.Dynamics of the volume and capacity of the market (2013 - 2015)

1.5. Market structure by types of products

Part 2. IMPORT ANALYSIS IN THE CONFECTIONERY MARKET (2015)

2.1 Volume and dynamics of imports

2.2 Import structure:

2.2.1. by producing countries (in physical and value terms)

2.2.2. by manufacturing companies (in physical and value terms)

Part 3. COMPETITOR ANALYSIS

3.1.Major players in the market

3.2. Market shares of the largest competitors

Part 4. MARKET FORECAST FOR 2017

Chart example

Research excerpt
“...the premium confectionery market has a significant potential for import substitution, as 25-27% of premium products are imported goods. But, it is impossible to predict a rapid and large-scale growth in the volume of Russian premium products. Economic factors have a negative impact on the market situation - they impede the renewal of the material and technical base of production and the growth of household incomes. Despite all the difficulties of the economic situation, producers of the premium segment of confectionery products are not threatened with a decrease in consumption, as the market has a certain immunity ... "

List of diagrams

Diagram 28. Dynamics of retail trade turnover, forecast until 2020

List of tables
Table 1. Factors affecting the confectionery market in the Russian Federation

Table 2. Index of industrial production by constituent entities of the Russian Federation (in % of the previous year), 2010-2015

Table 3. Population of Russia, Moscow and the region, 2009 - 2015

Table 4. Volume and capacity of the Russian confectionery market, 2013 - 2015

Table 5. Volumes of imports of confectionery products in two price segments, 2015, tons

Table 9. The largest players-manufacturers of the "premium" segment of products